油气资源合作的演化博弈分析——以中俄原油管道为例

The Evolution of the Oil and Gas Resource Cooperative Game Theory——Russia Crude Oil Pipeline as an Example

目前全球范围内争夺油气资源的竞争日趋激烈,能源、能源供给安全等诸多问题已日益受到广泛关注。随着经济的高速发展,能源问题已经成为这个时代的主题。俄罗斯的油气资源非常丰富,我国则是全球重要的油气生产和消费大国,两国进行油气资源合作具有先天的优势,符合双方的战略利益。但中俄双方油气合作的过程并不顺利,不同的利益取向和两国不同的政策措施,一直影响着中俄双方的油气合作。在分析国际油气资源合作问题时,本文采用了演化博弈的方法来建立模型,以中俄原油管道为例进行了演化博弈分析。通过研究发现,要想使合作成功,除了国家补贴、税收优惠、政策支持等积极的促进因素外,约束机制、违约责任、惩罚等措施也是必不可少的,只有这样才能保证参与双方的合作积极有效。

The current global competition for oil and gas resources is becoming more competitive.Energy,energy supply security and many other energy issues have received increasing attention.With the rapid economic development,oil and gas resources＇ importance to our country is self-evident,energy has become the subject of this era.Russia is rich in oil and gas resources,and China is one of the world＇s major oil and gas production and consumption country.Cooperation between these two countries for oil and gas resources has inherent advantages in line with their strategic interests.However,the process of oil and gas cooperation between China and Russia was not successful,the different interests of the two different orientations and policy measures has been affecting the oil and gas cooperation between China and Russia.Cooperation between China and Russia is along with the strength and weakness,opportunity and challenge.This article built the model with the method of evolutionary game to analyze the cooperation of oil and gas resources,and took the China-Russia crude oil pipeline for example.The result showed,to make successful cooperation,in addition to promotion positive factors such as state subsidies,tax incentives and policy support,the binding mechanism,punishment for the breach of contract,penalties and other measures are also essential.