上海PRED系统的演变与发展战略研究

A STUDY ON EVOLUTION OF SHANGHAI POPULATION, RESOURCES,ENVIRONMENT AND ITS COORDINATIVE DEVELOPMENT

人口、资源、环境与发展(PRED)的协调,是一研究内容宽泛而又复杂的课题,也是可持续发展的实质性内容。自80年代以来,PRED始终是我国区域研究的热点之一。本文在已有研究的基础上,首次以PRED系统发展的时间轨迹为线索,对上海1978～1995年这一具有特殊历史意义的时期中有关PRED大量数据进行了分析。依据典型性、直接关联性和连续数据可获得性原则确立了总人口增长率、工业用综合能源消耗量年变化率、水环境质量综合评价指数年变化率、国内生产总值年增长率、人均居住面积年增长率等七项指标,探讨上海PRED系统的演变特征和作用机制。初步看出上海PRED系统演变具有不同步性和跳跃性,再次证明协调环境与经济的关系仍然是上海面临的重要任务,其中主要的调控因子是国内生产总值增长率、人口增长率和人均居住面积增长率。并进一步指出规划、结构、系统控制将是上海PRED协调的主要调控点,从人口、资源、环境与发展的不同角度,就整体与局部的主要关系提出了具体的对策,而发展是PRED走向协调的基石。

Coordination among Population(P),Resources(R),Environment(E),and Development(D),which is a study with comprehensive and extensive contents. It's also the core of sustainable development.Since 1980s PRED have been becoming the limelight of regional studies in our country. Based on the existed research, this thesis analysis the PRED evolution trace of Shanghai during 1978～1995 through large amount of relative data. The authors try to approach the evolution characters and interaction mechanism of Shanghai PRED by seven indicators of growth rate of GNP,growth rate of population,growth rate of industry energy consumption etc.,which were selected in accordance with the principles of representativeness, relativity and data obtainment.The research showed that there was obvious asynchronous among indicators and annual change of single indicator was lack of regularity, coordination between environment and economy is still the main task that Shanghai faced,and the main readjusted factors will be population growth rate,GNP growth rate and per residential area growth rate.The thesis further pointed out that plan,structure and system power were equal important for the more coordinate development in Shanghai.The Systematic measurements through each side of P,R,E,D were discussed in details,and higher and comprehensive development level is the necessary basis for Shanghai PRED coordination.