全球流动性风险和对策

Global liquidity: Risks and Policy Options

借鉴国际清算银行的测量框架,本文认为,私人流动性本质上指融资意愿,具有很强的传染性和跨境传递特征;其周期波动与金融危机密切相关,与主要国际货币发行国政策取向相关,而新兴市场是全球流动性的被动接受者;有效减缓全球流动性周期波动幅度、降低跨境流动性对宏观经济和金融体系的冲击、及时提供救助以避免系统性破产,是全球流动性管理的核心目标;实现这些目标,需要一个涵盖国别、双边、区域和全球在内的应对框架和全球金融安全网;全球流动性机制建设为中国参与国际金融治理提供了契机,也为国内各项政策协调提出了挑战。

This article discusses the measurement of global liquidity, risks and policy responses. With reference to the framework provided by the Bank of International Settlement, this article argues that private liquidity virtually reflects financing willingness. It is highly contagious and has a strong cross-border spillover effect. It is also cyclically correlated with the financial crisis. While the major currency-issuing countries are the creators of global liquidity, the emerging economies are generally passive receivers. It is the core aim of global liquidity management to effectively reduce the fluctuation of global liquidity cycles, mitigate the impact of the cross-border flow on macroeconomic and financial systems and provide aid to prevent systematic bankruptcy. This article suggests that a global financial safety net comprising multiple layers of national, bilateral, regional and international countermeasures be put in place to prevent and mitigate relevant systematic risks. The promotion of a global liquidity supporting mechanism provides China with a new opportunity for it to participate in global financial governance but poses challenges to policy coordination among national countries.