论新时期中国的准联盟外交

China’s Quasi-alliance Diplomacy in the New Era

近代以来,西方大国的崛起在对外关系上主要依靠联盟外交,如英、法、德等国家在欧洲的"合纵连横",日本的"与强者为伍"战略,二战后美国对北约和亚太联盟体系的经营,冷战后俄罗斯对独联体集体安全条约组织的依赖等。受制于自身独特的发展阶段以及社会主义国家性质和地缘环境,中国缺乏历史上大国崛起所拥有的"后院",中国的战略文化也排斥"势力范围"和"联盟政治"思想。作者从中国的时代需要出发,认为现阶段中国的四大外交战略——大国协调战略、区域整合战略、政治联合战略和国际危机管理战略均难以满足中国的安全需要,中国应在联盟外交与伙伴外交之外探索"第三条道路"——准联盟外交。实施这种"联而不盟"的特殊外交类型需具备四个条件:竞争性政治集团、动态性权力关系、严重性安全威胁和"统合性"战略文化。在新时期国际"多元格局"下,中国应尝试开展灵活务实、相互联动的"三环准联盟外交"——多边组织型、新兴合作型与传统友好型,它是中国实现和平发展,运筹与美国、欧洲大国、日本、印度等大国关系的战略支点。

In modern times,alliance diplomacy has always been adopted during the rise of Western powers.However,due to its unique identity,the socialist system and international setting,China doesn’t have an exclusive 'backyard' like the other rising powers in history;furthermore,the traditional Chinese culture does not allow a kind of policy by using 'sphere of influence' and 'alliance politics'.The author argues that China can adopt 'quasi-alliance diplomacy',a third way between alliance diplomacy and partnership diplomacy.The implementation of quasi-alliance diplomacy requires four elements:conflicting political blocs,fluid power relations,overwhelming security threat,and inclusive strategic culture.Under the new era,China’s alignment with Shanghai Cooperation Organization,regional emerging powers,and the five traditional allies,can be an important tool and mechanism for China to interact with big powers such as the U.S.,EU,Japan and India,and to achieve peaceful development.