具有时滞的可燃物含水率预测模型

Prediction Model for Forest Fuel Moisture with Time Delay

利用相关性分析法选取了影响可燃物含水率变化的影响因子和延迟时间,同时说明气温、相对湿度和风速等影响因子对可燃物含水率变化的影响有滞后性,并通过微分方程理论推导,建立了具有时滞的可燃物含水率预测模型,给出了模型中各影响因子的取值范围。结果表明:所建模型的精度达到96.0%,说明在研究森林可燃物含水率变化规律时考虑时滞因素是正确的。

The influence factors and delay on the change in forest fuel moisture are analyzed by correlation analysis.It is illustrated that the effects of air temperature,relative humidity and wind speed on forest fuel moisture exhibit a form of hysteresis.A prediction model for forest fuel moisture with delay is built by differential equations.The value ranges of the influence factors are given.Results indicate that the precision of the established model is up to 96.0 percent,indicating that it is proper to take delay factors into account in the study of the changing regularity of forest fuel moisture.