出口还是对外直接投资:中国企业“走出去”影响因素研究

Export or Outward FDI:A Study on Factors Influencing Firms′ “Go-out”

通过建立一个企业的出口与投资决策模型,文章研究了企业出口与投资选择的影响因素,并采用2003～2008年中国制造业对外直接投资的国别数据,对影响制造业对外投资倾向的因素进行了实证检验。结果表明,发达国家与新兴市场国家的相对高工资水平是制约我国制造业对其直接投资的主要因素,而贸易成本的降低使得国内企业更倾向于出口而不是对外直接投资。文章的结果同时显示,东道国的实际收入水平与研发水平对企业直接投资具有一定的吸引力,但并不显著,中国企业的对外投资行为并没有在不同发展水平的国家表现出显著的差异。本文认为,在缺乏其他特定竞争优势的条件下,促进制造业对外直接投资还需要更多政策层面的支持。

This paper develops a partial equilibrium model that explains which factors influence a firm′s choice between export and investment for entering into foreign markets,then examines empirically the effects of those factors on investment propensity using a panel data of China manufacturing′s outward FDI.The results show that high relative wages of developed and new emerging markets have largely restricted manufacturing′s foreign direct investment and the decline of trade cost also made export more preferable than investment,however,real GDP and R&D level of host countries may promote outward FDI but not statistically significant.It argues that in the absence of other specific competitive advantages,to promote manufacturing outward FDI needs more policy support.