山区公路事故率与平面线形的关系

Relation between accident rate and horizontal alignment for mountain highway

统计了2条山区公路的交通事故数据与平面线形数据,采用角度变化率作为平面线形的表征参数,对样本路段区间内的事故率与角度变化率进行回归分析,分别计算了当前样本路段向前0.25、0.50、0.75、1.00、1.50km等多个计算区间上的平均角度变化率。对角度变化率进行二次处理,利用最小二乘法拟合了事故率与角度变化率之间的曲线关系。分析结果表明:路段1、2区间内的事故率与角度变化率的拟合判定系数较低,分别为0.414 2和0.120 8;在当前样本路段向前0.50km的计算区间上,事故率与平均角度变化率的正二次抛物线关系均最明显,拟合判定系数分别为0.966 1和0.790 8;当平均角度变化率大约在0.002 0(°).km-1时,事故率最低。

The traffic accident data and horizontal alignment data of two mountain highways were collected, the curvature change rate was regarded as the characteristic parameter of horizontal alignment, the regression analysis between accident rate and curvature change rate on current sample section was carried out, and the average curvature change rates of those several calculation intervals were respectively calculated, which were 0. 25, 0. 50, 0. 75, 1. 00 and 1.50 km upward of current sample section. The secondary treatment on the curvature change rate was carried out, and the relations between the accident rates and the curvature change rates were fitted by using least square method. Analysis result shows that the fitting determination coefficients between the accident rates and the curvature change rates on sections 1 and 2 are lower, are about 0. 414 2 and 0. 120 8 respectively. While on the calculation intervals that are 0. 5 km upward of current sample sections, their positively secondary parabolic relations both are the most significantly, and the fitting determination coefficients are 0. 966 1 and 0. 790 8 respectively. While the average curvature change rate is about 0. 002 0 （°）.km-1 , the accident rate is lowest. 6 tabs, 12 figs, 23 refs.