摘要
利用湖北省82个县(市、区)1991～2007年县级中稻单产数据,逐县选择相应的ARIMA(p,d,q)模型拟合其中稻历年单产,并计算出单产减产率,然后在此基础上运用非参数核密度估计法算出各县中稻产量保险纯费率,最后考虑到农作物产量损失的空间相依性,根据各县所面临的系统风险状况对纯费率进行调整,得到更为合理的纯费率。
With data of midseason rice yield per hectare of 82 counties in Hubei Province from 1991 to 2007, the article selects corresponding ARIMA model to fit annual midseason rice yield per hectare of each county and calculates the yield reduction rate per hectare. Then it calculates the pure premium rate of midseason rice insurance of each county with nonparameter kernel density model. As for the spacial dependence of crop yield losses, the article adjusts the pure premium rate according to different system risk in each county, in order to obtain the much reasonable pure premium rate.
出处
《生态经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第4期61-64,共4页
Ecological Economy
基金
教育部人文社科青年基金资助"基于县域产量的农作物保险精算:损失评估
风险区划与费率厘定"(10YJC790147)
关键词
农作物保险
区域产量保险
费率厘定
非参数核密度模型
crop insurance
area yield crop insurance
rate making
non-parameter kernel density model
