中东剧变中的阿尔及利亚政局透视

Perspective of Algerian Political Situation during the Middle East Upheaval

2010年底以来,中东地区多国发生了政权更迭,阿尔及利亚一度爆发群众游行示威,但目前阿尔及利亚政局基本稳定,原因可归纳为以下四个方面:一是阿尔及利亚独立以来的长期动荡释放了民众的不满;二是布特弗利卡执政联盟仍具有较强的政治实力;三是国内的两个主要反对派因其各自的缺陷,难以获得大多数民众的支持;四是现政权与美国保持了较好的关系。然而,由于目前中东地区的局势尚在发展中,随着新因素的加入,阿尔及利亚的政局仍存在变数。

Since the year 2010, regime changes have taken place in some of the Middle Eastern countries, whereas Algeria has come through the crisis of mass demonstrations. It seems that Algeria is going to retain the political stability during a period of time. Four factors play major roles in keeping the current regime. Firstly, long term instability ever since the independence of Algeria has been releasing the energy of mass demonstrations. Secondly, Bouteflika＇s ruling coalition still holds many effective political resources. Thirdly, two main oppositions are incapable to win mass support since each of them is defective in particular aspect. Finally, the current regime keeps good relationship with US. Despite all the above favorable conditions for the current regime, Algerian political situation is still facing challenges derived of the ongoing unrest in the Middle East.