气候变化与人类活动对水文影响的研究进展

Research advances in effects of climate change and human activities on hydrology

气候变化与人类活动对水文过程产生了重大影响,估计和区分二者的影响是水科学研究中的热点问题。针对气候变化和人类活动(土地利用/覆盖变化)两个驱动因素,分别综述了气候变化、人类活动和两者综合对水文影响的研究进展;介绍了未来的气候情景和人类活动情景;阐述了区分气候变化和人类活动对水文要素过去和未来影响的研究方法,并总结了方法中常用的分布式水文模型。提出当前研究中存在气候和人类活动情景重复交叉、缺乏两者对水文极值事件的影响研究等问题。

Both climate change and human activities have great effects on hydrological processes.How to estimate and separate the influences arose from these two driving factors has been the focus of attention in hydrologic science.In view of climate change and human activities,three aspects of the research have been concluded as following： the research progress of the hydrological impacts caused by the two driving factors respectively and comprehensively has been summarized;future climate scenarios and human activities have been introduced;the methods of decomposing the influences of climate change and human activity scenarios on hydrology both in the past and future have been illustrated,and the distributed hydrological models which are frequently-used have been listed as well.Finally,based on current research contents,the problem of overlap between climate scenarios and human activity scenarios,and also the lack of research on the hydrologic extreme events separately caused by climate change and human activities are summarized and discussed.