武冈市7～9月日最高气温精细化预报方法研究

Study on Refined Forecast Method of Daily Maximum Temperature in Wugang City from July to September

[目的]对武冈市7～9月日最高气温精细化预报方法进行研究。[方法]利用2009～2010年T213和欧洲中心ECMWF模式产品及相应时段内测站的日最高气温,用多因子相似预报方法动态优选预报样本,采用多元回归多模式集成MOS方法,经动态地订正模式误差和回归误差后,得出动态预报方程,制作24～120 h武冈市7～9月日最高气温预报。[结果]经样本优选、误差订正得到的武冈市7～9月日最高气温方程,经多次随机抽样,并做F检验,可通过显著水平为0.1的检验。[结论]这种方法具有预报模式中外结合、充分利用多个模式的有用信息、吸取各自的优点,考虑本地局部环境因素,减少模式误差和回归误差,利于提高预报精度的优点。

[ Objective ] The aim was to study the refined forecast method of daily highest temperature in Wugang City from July to September. [ Method] By dint of ECMWF mode product and T231 in 2009 and 2010 and daily maximum temperature in the station in corresponding period, multi-factors similar forecast method to select forecast sample, multivariate regression muhi-mode integration MOS method, after dynamic cor- rected mode error and regression error, dynamic forecast equation was concluded to formulate the daily maximum temperature forecast in 24 -120 h in Wugang City from July to September. [ Result ] Through selection, error correction, the daily maximum temperature equation in Wu- gang City from July to September was concluded. Through multiple random sampling, F test was made to pass test with significant test of 0. 1. [ Conclusion] The method integrated domestic and foreign forecast mode, made full use of useful information of many modes, absorbed each others advantages, considered local regional environment, lessen mode and regression error, and improved forecast accuracy.