气候变化相关疾病负担的评估方法

Methods for Assessment of Burden of Climate Change-Related Diseases

气候变化已经明显影响到人类的健康,造成疾病负担的加重,因此,开展气候变化对人群疾病负担影响的研究显得尤为重要。目前气候变化疾病负担的评估主要应用了环境疾病负担(EBD)的评估方法,主要为伤残调整寿命年(DALY)的计算和风险评估模型(CRA)的应用。该文综述了国内外气候变化疾病负担评估的基本方法,通过计算基准年的DALY值、应用CRA模型来计算归因分值(PAF)、总的疾病负担与归因分值的乘积等一系列步骤,最终得出归因于气候变化的疾病负担。

Climate change has had significant impact on human health, with increased burden of disease, so, researches on impacts of climate change to population burden of disease appears to be particularly important. Most of the researches used the method of environmental burden of disease （EBD）, which included the indicator of the disability adjusted life years （DALYs） and the application of comparative risk assessment methods （CRA）. This paper reviewed the relevant researches both at home and abroad to find the methods for estimating aggregate disease burdens attributable to climate change. Three steps should be included in the study： （1） to calculate the DALYs of the baseline year, （2） to get the population attributable fraction （PAF） by the application of CRA methods. （3） attributable burden=PAFxtotal burden.