中国外汇储备和物价水平关系的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Causality Between Foreign Exchange Reserves and Price Level in China

本文采用1994～2010年的年度数据,在单整和协整检验的基础上,利用Granger因果检验对中国外汇储备与物价水平的内在联系进行实证分析。结果表明,外汇储备变动和物价水平变动之间不存在格兰杰因果关系。因此.通过人民币升值来减少外汇储备并不是抑制国内通货膨胀的有效方法。

Based on annual data of 1994 -2010,this paper used single root test and cointegration test to process the data, and did Granger causality test to analyse inherent causality between foreign exchange reserves and price level in China. The result showed that there is no Granger causality between the increase of foreign exchange reserves and the inflation of prices ,which proved that foreign exchange reserves reduction through RMB appreciation is not an effective way to control inflation.