2012年中国物价走势分析与判断

Analyses and Judgments on Chinese Price Trend in 2012

2011年,我国经济增长由政策刺激向自主增长有序转变,物价总水平高位运行,上涨势头初步得到控制,同时经济增长呈平稳减速态势。初步判断,本轮物价涨幅已经见顶,价格运行拐点特征已得到确认,2011年GDP增长9.2%,CPI上涨5.4%。从2012年发改委设定的4%的CPI价格调控目标来看,2012年价格翘尾因素将显著降低,物价总水平将呈现温和上涨态势,国内资源要素价格改革压力加大。虽然控制物价上涨已经逐渐淡出第一调控目标,但是在导致本轮价格上涨的因素一个都没有消除前,就此判断未来价格风险已消除还为时过早。

During the year 2011, the increase of our country＇s economy has turned into individual growth because of the stimulation from new policies. The general price level is still high, but the trend of growth is initially under control. Meanwhile, the economic growth is gradually slowing down. Our preliminary judgment is that the amount of price increase of this round has already reached the top, and the inflexion of price operation has been confirmed. In 201 1, GDP has increased by 9. 2%, and CPI has increased by 5.4%. According to the 2012 price regulation set by National Development and Reform Commission, CPI should increase by 4%. The tail-raising factor will be less obvious with a gentle increase of general price level, but the pressure of revolution in domestic resources will be much heavier. It is still too early to decide that future price risks will never show up before all the factors causing the price increase are eliminated, though the control of price increase has gradually faded out from our primary regulation.