长三角地区节能减排演化情景分析及预测

The Evolution Scenario Analysis and Forecast on Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction of Yangtze River Delta

以长三角地区经济发展为基础,综合考虑该地区能源环境现状。基于节能减排动态演化模型,结合情景分析法对长三角地区2015年经济产值、能源消耗及污染排放进行预测,并分析2009～2015年经济产值、能源消耗及污染排放演化情况。旨在为未来长三角地区实施节能减排策略,实现可持续发展提供理论依据。

Based on the development of economy in Yangtze River Delta, the paper analyzes the status quo of energy and environment in the area. Using the energy conservation and emission reduction dynamic evolution model and applying scenario analysis method, it forecasts the economic output, energy consumption and pollution emission of Yangtze River Delta in 2015 and then analyzes the evolution of economic output, energy consumption and pollution emission from 2009 to 2015. The paper provides theory basis for Yangtze River Delta to realize the strategy of energy saving and emission reduction and achieve sustainable development of economy, energy and environment in the future.