摘要
本文通过比较原油价格变动对中国与西方发达国家经济增长影响,建立了原油价格变动影响经济增长的国际传导机制模型,研究结论包括:(1)当期原油价格上涨对中国经济增长率有显著的负向影响;(2)当期原油价格上涨对西方七国增长率有正向影响,不过这个结论在统计上不显著;(3)滞后1、2期的原油价格上涨对当期西方国家经济增长率有显著的负向影响;(4)当期中国经济结构变动在5%的显著性水平下影响中国经济增长率,在10%的显著性水平下影响西方七国经济增长率;(5)中国经济增长率对西方国家的经济增长有长期的正向影响,影响时间持续3年以上;(6)西方七国经济增长对中国经济增长有负向影响,影响时期持续两年以上。根据上述结论本文认为稳定的原油价格是中国和西方国家的共同责任,因为彼此的利益已经如此紧密相联。
The paper compares the effect of Crude oil price fluctuation to China and G7M,and on the base of that the paper builds a model describing international transmission mechanism of Crude oil price fluctuation.The conclusions are（1） the rise in current Crude oil price has a negative influence on China.（2）the rise in current Crude oil price has an positive influence on G7M,.Yet the idea has no statistical significance.（3）the rise in hysteretic Crude oil price has an negative influence on G7M.（4）Economic structure of China has an influence on China and G7M.（5）the rise in economic growth rate of China has a long positive influence on G7M,and the periods continue more than 3 years.（6）the rise in economic growth rate of G7M has a negative influence on China,and the periods continue 2 years.So that we think it is important to both China and G7M to keep crude oil price steady,because interests are close connected between China and G7M.
出处
《未来与发展》
2012年第3期34-39,29,共7页
Future and Development
