吉林省区域环境中硒的生态风险评价

Ecological risk assessment of selenium in regional environment of Jilin Province

将硒的生物动力学模型和蒙特卡罗（Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ）分析方法相结合，对吉林省居民血硒营养状况进行了定量生态风险评价研究研究结果表明，所建立的硒的生物动力学模型能够用于区域性居民血硒的预测预报模型．预测居民血硒平均值为０．０４４μｇ／ｍＬ，标准差为０．０１３，与实测血硒平均值０，０４３μｇ／ｍＬ，标准差０．０１９相比，无显著差异（Ｐ＞０．０５）预测吉林省居民克山病发病的风险度为１９８％，与实测发病率１６．４％较接近硒的生态风险评价模型的提出为人体内其他微量元素预测、预报模型的研究提供了范例．

Integrating the biokinetic model of selenium with Monte Carlo analysis, a quantitative study of ecological risk assessment on blood selenium levels of residents in Jinn Province was studied. The result shows that the established biokinetic model can be used to predict the blood selenium levels of residents in a region. The predictive average of blood selenium is 0.044g/mL and standard deviation is 0.013. Compared with the measured average of blood selenium (0.043g/mL) and standard deviation (0.019), there exists no obvious difference between (P> 0.05). The predictive risk degree (19.8%) is also similar with the measured condition of Keshan disease occurrence(16.4%) of residents in Jinn Province. The advance of ecological risk assessment model of selenium offers a good demonstrative example for the study of predictive model on other trace elements in human body.