基于GM(1,1)模型的山西煤矿百万吨死亡率的预测研究

Based on the GM(1,1) Model of Shanxi Coal Mine Million Tons of the Mortality of Prediction Research

文章根据灰色系统预测理论,建立了煤矿百万吨死亡率的GM(1,1)动态预测模型。对山西省近几年的煤矿百万吨死亡率进行统计预测,对预测精度进行了验证。结果表明:该预测模型的构造是正确的,对煤矿的安全生产提供了精确的理论依据。

According to the grey forecasting theory, establish the one million tons of coal mine the mortality of GM （ 1, 1 ） dynamic pre- diction model. The coal mine in Shanxi Province in recent years one million tons mortality statistics predict, the prediction accuracy is validated. The results show that the prediction model of the structure is correct for coal mine safety production provides precise theory basis.