套管的随机可靠性设计方法

Random reliability design of casing

本文在分析了目前国内外各种套管设计方法的基础上 ,结合我国套管设计的现状和生产的实际需要 ,提出了一种新的处理现场载荷变化和套管性能的方法。着重介绍了随机可靠性设计的基本原理、方法及随机可靠性分析方法和计算公式。并在此基础上初步建立了基于现场载荷过程和套管性能实际测验结果之上的载荷和容量概率分布 ,并对一种套管进行了可靠性设计计算。为实现对套管的可靠性设计和分析提供了理论和方法。

On the basis of analysis of case program design methods at home and abroad,combined with the actuality of casing design and the need of actual production in our country,a new method which can meet the need of the variety of load and the capability of casing is presented in this paper.The basic principle and method of random probability design,and analysis method and calculation formula are also presented.The probability distributions for load and capacity are developed based on assumed field load histories and actual test results on casing performance,and one specific kind of casing is designed by it.The method and theory are provided for reliability design and calculation of casing.