基于全球经济一体化的当前通货紧缩研究

The research on the current deflationalism based on the global economic integration

自从 1 997年下半年以来 ,我国物价指数增幅连续二十多个月为负数 .这一建国后罕见的物价低迷现象引出了一场关于通货紧缩的热烈讨论 .在这些讨论中 ,认为我国正处于通货紧缩的论点占绝对主导地位 .本文认为 ,由于全球经济的一体化浪潮 ,国家与国家之间经济边界的淡化以及经济系统边界的扩大 ,经济系统中突现出许多本质不同的性质和特征 ,这些变化不仅导致各国经济变化存在很大相关性 ,甚至连政策变化也存在一定相关性 ,因此基于孤立的一个国家视角的通货紧缩理论具有很大的局限性 .本文立足于全球经济一体化的观点和“一篮子货币”思想 ,通过选择不同的参照系 ,考虑人民币 /美元汇率 ,以及考虑其它重要经济因素——日元 /美元汇率 ,世界原油价格 ,有色金属价格以及东南亚金融危机的影响 ,定量地考察了我国近年物价变化的实质原因 ,从而阐明了我国近两年的物价下跌基本上是正常的物价回落 ,同时也证明了近两年国家刺激经济增长的财政政策和货币政策已经发挥了巨大的作用 .最后 ,本文从几个重要经济指标的走势变化指出了全球经济形势的新变化 ,运用世界经济和我国经济滞后影响原理 ,提出了目前应该进入仔细观察和深入定量分析国际和国内经济形势 ,谨慎出台刺激物价上涨政策的阶段 ,以便寻求一系列更适合?

Since the later half of 1997, negative has continuously been the price index change rate of China for more than twenty months. The unusual phenomenon of declining price since the foundation of PRC has caused a heated debate on deflation, among which the viewpoint that China has been in deflation takes the dominant place. This paper thinks that due to the integration of the global economy, the obscuring of the economic boundaries among countries and the enlargement of the economic systems, there emerge lots of different qualities and characteristics in the economic system. The essential changes lead to the high degree correlation among the country economies, so much as the policy changes. Therefore the deflation theory based on “single country theory” have many limitations. Based on the global economic integration and a basket of currencies, by selecting different monetary benchmark, this paper considers the exchange rate of RMB in relation to US dollar and several other important factors, such as the exchange rate of Japanese Yen, the price of the international crude oil and copper, and the Southeast Asia financial crisis. The essential reasons of the price changes in China in recent years are quantificationally analyzed. Thereby we demonstrate that the decline of the price in 1998 and 1999 basically is a normal falling back of price and the fiscal and monetary policies implemented recently to stimulate price do have already taken great effect. Finally, this paper points out the new change of the global economy from the reverse of the trend of several important economic indexes. Finally this paper points out that the newest changes happening to the global economic situation through the observation of several critical economic indices' changes. With the aid of the principle of the lag lead of the world economy and our economy, this paper proposes that the international circumstances should be observed carefully and analyzed in depth, and the policy to stimulate the price should be implemented discreetly in the future so as to look for a set of suitable and safe policies.