摘要
基于我国现阶段的汇率制度和外汇管理体制的基本特征 ,本文应用汇率经济学理论与系统分析方法 ,深入探讨我国外汇市场供求变化的内在机制 ;在提出中国进出口方程和贸易差额方程的基础上 ,建立经常项目可兑换条件下的人民币汇率决定模型 ,并应用 1 994年至 1 998年的月度数据对汇率模型进行实证分析 .分析结果表明 。
Based on the characteristic of China's exchange rate regime and the foreign exchange management system, this paper constructs an exchange rate model of renminbi (RMB) under current account convertibility. This paper gives economic analysis in detail on changes in supply and demand in the national foreign exchange market, probes the foreign trade behavior, and gives export and import and trade balance equations as well. Econometric results provide evidence that the model can explain the variations of RMB against U. S. dollar exchange rate quite well.
出处
《管理科学学报》
CSSCI
2000年第1期66-72,93,共8页
Journal of Management Sciences in China
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目 !7980 0 0 19
关键词
人民币汇率
模型
经常项目可兑换
国际汇兑
RMB exchange rate model
current account convertibility
capital control
foreign exchange market
trade equation
empirical analysis
