内需与外需的动态关系——来自中国的经验

Empirical Analysis on Dynamics of China's Domestic and External Demands

内需变量和外需变量二者之间存在相互积极的动态作用。以中国数据为研究对象,通过建立VAR(2)模型进行进一步的计量检验,结果表明:内需和外需之间具有协整关系并且存在着双向因果关系,外需变化和内需变化之间存在着显著的相互作用的动态影响。外需和内需并不是非此即彼的关系,所谓外需主导或是内需主导或者是所谓需求主导转型的提法是不正确的。扩大内需与稳定并促进外需增长并不矛盾,二者之间相辅相成、并行不悖,中国内需的有效扩大离不开外需的平稳增长,而内需的扩大同样对外需具有驱动作用。

Cross correlation of China＇s domestic and external demands analysis shows that the two variables have positive dynamic relationship. And this relationship is further tested by using the VAR model. Results indicates that co -integration and bi -directional Granger causal relations exist between the two variables. China＇s domestic and external demands have positive dynamic impacts on each other. This paper argues that domestic demand or external demand is not a alternative choice, and it is not correct to state external demand orientation, or domestic demand orientation, or transformation of demand orientation. There is no conflict between expansion of domestic demand and external demand, and there are supplements to each other. The effective expansion of China＇s domestic demand should be supported by the expansion of China＇s external demand, at the same time, expansion of China＇s domestic demand could also drive expansion of China＇s external demand.