广东工业增长的弹性测算

Elasticity Estimation of the Industrial Growth in Guangdong

广东作为全国工业大省,其工业的增长关系到国家的"十二五"规划能否实现。尽管广东工业总产值、工业增加值的绝对量可能增大,但工业增加值的增长速度如果相对慢于工业总产值的增长速度,那么整体的工业增加值率会下降。运用双对数模型以及自回归模型修正研究,可以测算出广东工业增加值率对工业增加值、工业增加值率对工业总产值以及工业增加值对工业总产值的弹性系数,并显示广东工业增加值与工业增加值率存在反向变化的关系。研究还发现广东工业的增长偏离于国家"十二五"规划中工业转型升级的目标体系。

Although the absolute amount of gross industrial output value and industral value added in Guangdong may be increased, if the growth rate of industrial value added is relatively slower than that of the gross industrial output value, the overall industrial value added rate will decline. This article applies the double - log model and the autoregressive estimation to analyze the elasticity between the variables, and finds the reverse change between Guangdong ＇ s industrial value added and industrial value added rate. It＇ s found that industrial growth in Guangdong deviates from the subiects of industrial transformation and upgrading in the national ＂12th Five - Year＂ plant.