商业周期理论评述——基于奥地利学派观点

Comments on Business Cycle Theory:From Austrian School Point

奥地利学派认为经济的周期波动是由于中央银行采取了宽松的货币政策,导致了名义利率偏离了自然利率,从而造成人们的投资失误,引起不可持续的经济繁荣和高涨,最终导致衰退。很多经济学家认为,由于美国次贷危机而引发的世界性经济危机产生,其中一个主要原因是美联储不断干预利率,刺激经济而造成的。此时,奥地利学派的商业周期理论成为人们关注的焦点之一。本文通过梳理奥地利学派商业周期理论的主要观点,跟踪其与主流学派的争论内容,旨在完整的阐述其理论的科学洞见及不足,为人们全面认识奥地利学派商业周期理论提供参考。

Austrian school thought that cyclical fluctuations in the economy is due to a loose monetary policy in the central bank, resulting in the nominal interest rate deviate from the natural rate of interest, people＇s investment mistakes, and causing unsustainable economic prosperity and rising, leading to recession in the end. Many economists believe the U. S. subprime mortgage crisis triggered by the global economic crisis produced, one of the main reasons is the Fed continuing intervention in the interest rate so that stimulate the economy caused. At this point, the Austrian business cycle theory has become the focus of attention. In this paper, sort out the Austrian business cycle theory, tracking the main point and the debate with the contents of the mainstream school. The full exposition of the theory of scientific insight and deficiencies, to fully understand the Austrian business cycle theory to provide a reference for people.