我国经济结构调整对国际收支差额的影响——基于消费、投资与外贸结构的分析

The Impact of Chinese Economic Structural Adjustment on the Difference in the Balance of International Payments——Analysis Based on Consumption,Investment and Foreign Trade Structure

笔者利用SVAR与VEC模型研究发现,通过投资、消费、外贸结构调整对我国国际收支进行调节,在短期与长期存在差异性。短期结构调整的重点应放在提高城镇居民消费占比,适当扩大政府消费占比,有效抑制进出口增长速度等方面;长期调整的重点应集中于有效提高城镇与农村居民的消费占比上。由于我国消费和外贸结构调整对国际收支调节的作用突出,因此,需要通过显著提高居民收入水平,不断增强国内消费需求来改变消费、投资和外贸结构,以促进我国国际收支基本平衡的实现。

The research with SVAR model and VEC model found that there are differences in the short term and in the long term in the adjustment of the balance of international payments through investment, consumption and foreign trade structure adjustment. Short-term restructuring should focus on improving the proportion of urban residents in the consumption, expanding the share of government consumption, and inhibiting effectively the growth rate of imports and exports; long-term adjustment should focus on improving effectively the proportion of consumption of urban and rural residents. As the restructuring of consumption and foreign trade can play a significant role in the adjustment of the balance of international payments, China needs to raise the income levels of residents and increase domestic consumer demand to change the structure of consumption, investment and foreign trade and achieve the equilibrium of the balance of international payments of our country.