摘要
余淼杰认为,根据欧美等国现状,今年中国依然会出现净出口负贡献这一现象,甚至以后将成为常态;而在社会保障不完善的前提下,消费需求也难以快速增长。因此,今年中国的经济增长,还得依靠政府投资。
From the data of Customs statistics,in 2011 China's trade surplus was $ 155.14 billion,a net decrease of $ 26.37 billion compared to 2010.This suggests that the contribution of net exports to the national economy is negative.In this regard,Yu Miaojie,associate professor at Institute of National Development in Peking University,put forward his own views on the path of China's economic development.Yu said,we still need to use consumption and investment to achieve rapid economic growth.Most people think we should rely on consumption firstly to pull the economy.But Yu believes it is still investment.The reason is that the current social security of China is imperfect and the urbanization rate is low.And he pointed out that relying on consumption may make our country into so-called 'income trap in developing countries'.As the property market coincided with winter,European debt nightmare unawakened and external demand relatively weaked,it is hard to believe that private investment this year will be strong.Therefore,the only remaining way is rely on the rail,road and airport construction again.It means that we need government investments in infrastructure to stimulate the economy.
出处
《上海经济》
2012年第3期18-19,共2页
Shanghai Economy
