货币政策对M2的动态效应时滞分析及危机效应测算

Fluctuation Characteristics and Causes in M2 and Monetary Policy

科学测算金融危机期间已出台货币政策对货币供应量M2的效应时滞和贡献程度具有一定的现实价值。文章利用Markov状态转换及HP滤波模型识别不同货币政策状态的时间区间;利用多项式滞后分布模型分析政策工具变量对货币供应量影响的滞后效应,并以此为先验信息,建立了货币政策的Bayesian-PDLS动态效应分布模型,对金融危机期间已出台的货币政策效果进行了实际测算。主要结果表明:(1)外汇储备为M2的决定性因素,存款准备金率为M2主要的限制性因素;(2)货币政策变量M2总体对利率的弹性变化呈"U"型分布;在紧缩型情况下M2对利率的弹性变化呈"W"型分布;在扩张情形下M2对利率的弹性变化呈"v"型分布。

The rapid growth of economic development in China had begun exerting pressure on rising consumer price since 2008. Avoiding inflation and overheating economy have become major economic controlling issues for Chinese government. Maintaining stable economic development and controlling excessive rising of consumer price become the main focus of economic development. Financial crisis in the US has negative effect on China, including slow growth of investment, export, and economic development. In order to increase domestic demand and promote economic growth, Chinese government begins changing its monetary policy from tightness to moderate looseness. It is important to increase financial support for economic development with the goal of having an annual money supply target, which should be at least 3 -4 percent higher than the sum of GDP growth rate. In another word, the M2 general money supply rises by about 17%. However, the impact of financial crisis is an uncertain factor. It is time to solve the pivotal issues as to how to access the exciting monetary policy in response to international financial crisis.