天生桥一级水电站月平均入库流量逐月滚动预测模型

Monthly Rolling Forecast Model for Monthly Average Inflow in Tianshengqiao Hydropower Station

由于江河流域的月平均流量变化与月尺度的短期气候变化密切相关,因此作为一种尝试,将月尺度短期气候变化的逐月滚动预测模型直接用于江河流域的月平均流量预测。文中从短期气候变化的逐月滚动预测模型出发,建立了天生桥一级水电站月平均入库流量的一种逐月滚动预测模型,并用该模型对天生桥一级水电站2004年1月以后的月平均入库流量进行预测,取得了较为满意的效果。

Since the monthly average flow （MAF） of river basin is related to the monthly short-term climate change, as a try, the monthly rolling forecast （MRF） model for short-term climate change is directly applied to the river basin MAF forecasts. Starting from MRF model of short-term climate change, an MRF model for month average inflow of Tianshengqiao Hydropower Station is established. MAF and water storage in Tianshingqiao Hydropower Station after January 2004 are forecasted with this model, which achieved satisfactory results.