中国财政政策对居民消费需求的非对称效应——基于流动性约束视角下一个新的分析框架

The Asymmetric Effect of Fiscal Policies on the Resident's Consumption Demand in China:A New Analysis Framework Based on the Perspective of Liquidity Constraints

政府运用财政政策扩大居民消费需求,除了需要科学抉择政策取向之外,政策力度和节奏的把握也非常关键。本文在Tagkalakis研究的基础上,首先提出了中国财政政策对居民消费非对称性效应研究的理论框架,然后建立财政政策冲击对居民消费影响的经济计量分析模型,利用1999—2009年中国省际面板数据估计了政府消费冲击、税收冲击以及预期可支配收入对居民消费的影响,并在此基础上进一步考察流动性约束在财政政策冲击对居民消费产生非对称性影响中的作用。实证结果表明财政政策冲击在好与坏两个时期之间对居民消费产生了显著的非对称性凯恩斯效应。其中在坏的时期,政府消费冲击与税收冲击对居民消费影响效应的绝对幅度相对较大。虽然国外理论界认为非对称性效应产生的原因复杂,本文认为在我国财政政策冲击对居民消费产生非对称性效应的原因中,流动性约束起到了非常重要的作用。另外,预期可支配收入因是否面临流动性约束而对不同类型消费者的消费需求影响发生方向性改变。

As for government to use fiscal policies to expand the demand of resident's consumption, they not only make scientific choice to decide the policy direction, but also mastering the intensity and rhythm of policy is very crucial. Firstly, based on the Tagkalakis research, the paper has put forward the theoretical framework about the asymmetric effect of China's fiscal policies on resident's consumption. Secondly, the article has established the econometric model about the effects of fiscal policies on resident's consumption, and then, used the panel data of China's inter-provincial from 1999 to 2009 to estimate the effects of government spending, taxes and the expected disposable income on resident's consumption. Thirdly, the paper further studied the role which liquidity constraints had the asymmetric effect of fiscal policies impact on residents' consumption. The result showed that the impact of fiscal policies on resident's consumption between good periods and bad periods had a significant asymmetry. In the bad times, the absolute impact of government spending and taxation on resident's consumption were larger. Although foreign theorists thought that the causes of the asymmetric effect are complex, this paper argued that liquidity constraints play a very important role in the asymmetric effect of China's fiscal policy impact on residents' consumption. In addition, due to whether or not facing liquidity constraints, the effects on the expected disposable income on the consumption demand of the different residents were different.