中部六省碳排放影响因素的动态面板数据分析

Dynamic Panel Data Analysis on Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission in Six Central Provinces

中部省份处于快速崛起和城市化的进程中,而能源需求特征使得碳减排相对困难。基于中部六省1996—2008的数据,引入出口、城市化等因素,运用动态面板模型分析碳排放的影响因素。研究表明产业结构、出口和城市化率对碳排放具有正效应,人均收入和能源价格为负效应。在此基础上,提出了调整产业结构、控制出口和延缓城市化速度等对策建议。

Central provinces are experiencing the process of rapid development and urbanization,but the characteristics of energy demand make carbon emission reduction becomes relatively difficult.Based on the data from 1996 to 2008 in six central provinces,this paper aims to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emission with dynamic panel data model by integrating the factors of export and urbanization.The study shows that industrial structure,export and the ratio of urbanization have positive effect on carbon emission,while per capita income and energy price have negative effect on carbon emission.On the basis of the above results,this paper puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions such as adjusting the industrial structure,controlling the export and slowing down the speed of urbanization.