圆形分布法分析石家庄市2004-2010年布鲁杆菌病的高发季节

Analysis on seasonal distribution of brucellosis in Shijiazhuang City by circular distribution method from 2004 to 2010

目的分析石家庄市2004-2010年布鲁杆菌病的季节性,为有效防制布病提供参考依据。方法对全国传染病疫情信息网络直报系统上报的石家庄市布病疫情资料,用圆形分布法分析布病发病的高峰日和高峰期,用相关分析法分析布病发病的长期趋势。结果 2004-2010年石家庄市布病发病波动不明显(γ=0.572,P=0.180)。且存在明显的季节性,其季节分布特征是,全年均可发病,2月份发病人数开始增多,3～7月份达高峰,8月份以后下降。7年间布病发病均存在明显的高峰日和高峰期(P<0.01),各年发病高峰日不相同或不全相同(F=3.912,P<0.05),总高峰日为6月3日,总高峰期为3月10日至8月26日。结论石家庄市布病发病存在明显的季节高峰,多集中在3～7月份,应围绕此发病高峰期采取有效防控措施。

The purpose was to analyze the seasonal distribution of brucellosis in Shijiazhuang City from 2004 to 2010,so as to provide scientific basis for brucellosis control and prevention.The brucellosis incidence data was derived from China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention.The seasonal characteristics including peak day and crest time of brucellosis were analyzed by circular distribution.The long-term trend of brucellosis was analyzed by correlation.Results demonstrated that the brucellosis incidence had no significant fluctuation（γ= 0.572,P=0.180）.The brucellosis incidence had obvious seasonality in Shijiazhuang from 2004 to 2010,brucellosis might occur in every month all over the year,which gradually increased from February,and reached the peak time from March to July,but gradually decreased from August.There were obvious peak day and crest time of brucellosis from 2004 to 2010（P0.01）.The peak day of brucellosis in each year was different or partly different（F=3.912,P0.05）.The peak day all over the year was 3rd June,and the crest time was 10th March to 26th August.It＇s suggested that there is obvious seasonality of brucellosis,which is concentrated from March to July.As the crest time is concentrated from the first 10 days of March to the last 10 days of September,effective precautions might be adopted according to the results.