川气东送目标市场供需形势及产销策略

Supply and Demand Situation of Sichuan to East Gas Pipeline Target Market and Its Production and Marketing Strategy

川气东送管道工程是国家"十一五"重点建设工程,于2010年投产供气。如何衔接好天然气产销、确保管道投产后市场的快速平稳增长是目前亟待解决的问题。根据普光气田产能建设安排,考虑了气田高含硫及其市场供气不均匀系数,测算了管道可外供商品气量,采用弹性系数法和项目分析法相结合的方法预测了管道沿线目标市场需求,并重点分析了在目前经济危机、川气提价等因素影响下,沿线目标市场所面临的供气形势,制定了保障天然气市场需求的安全供应、效益最大化、上下游一体化、价格和竞争策略。

As one of key national construction projects in 11th Five plan period, Sichuan to East Gas Pipeline Project had been put into production in 2010. However, how to make good convergence between natural gas production and marketing to ensure gas customer market fast and stable growth after the project are brought into production is always a problem should be solved. According to production ability construction arrangement,considering factor of high sulfur content gas field and gas supply market non-uniform coefficient,the market gas volume supplied by Sichuan to East Pipeline is estimated and furthermore,demand of the target markets along the pipeline are forecasted based on a method of integrating elastic coefficient method and project analysis meth od. Confronting increasingly grim supply and demand situation, especially in the context of the present economic crisis and Sichuan gas price rising,measures of guaranteeing gas supply security, ensuring benefit maximization of supply, integrating upstream and downstream,and related price and competition strategies are proposed.