主成分分析法分析中国大豆期货价格波动因素

Analysis of price fluctuation factors for soybean futures in China's market based on principal component analysis method

农业天然弱质性使得大豆受到自然因素和市场因素的双重影响,中国大豆市场价格在近年来出现大幅的波动.中国的大豆期货和现货之间有直接相关关系.研究了中国大豆期货价格波动规律和影响因素,对政府制定大豆保护价格和大豆加工企业规避风险都具有重要意义.通过对影响大豆期货价格波动的外部因素进行分析,利用主成分分析方法发现国际因素和替代产品是影响大豆短期期货价格波动的主要原因.

According to the nature of agriculture, the price of soybean is always effected by both natural and economic factors. The market price fluctuated sharply in recent years. However, there is a direct relation between the soybean futures and stock. Analyzing those factors is very important both for the government to decide the protective price and for the soybean processing enterprises to prevent the risk caused by the sharp price fluctuation. According to the analysis based on the principal component analysis method for the external factors effecting the price of soybean futures, the conclusion was that the fluctuation of the price was mainly caused by the changes of international environment and substitute goods market.