基于熵权可拓决策模型的区域粮食安全预警

Regional grain security pre-warning based on entropy weight extension decision model

定量评价区域粮食安全及客观的预警指标权重选取对于区域粮食安全至关重要。该文考虑影响粮食供给和需求等因素构建区域粮食安全预警指标体系,结合熵权和可拓学理论,建立基于熵权可拓决策模型的区域粮食安全预警模型,并对安徽省近11a(2000-2010年)的粮食安全进行预警分析。研究结果表明:安徽省粮食安全状况可以分为3个阶段,分别是重警阶段(2000-2004年)、中警阶段(2005-2006年)和安全阶段(2007-2010年);粮食安全预警安全度变化与单项预警指标值波动基本一致,综合安全度逐渐提高。该文建立的粮食安全预警模型能够提高区域粮食安全预警能力、定量评价粮食安全状态并有效预警,为实施粮食安全过程监管提供了新思路和方法。

Evaluating grain security state quantitatively and determining the index weight objectively are important for regional grain security. Considering the factors about grain supply and demand, an index system of grain security pre-warning was established, and a regional grain security pre-warning model based on entropy weight and extensional theory was built. The model was applied to the grain security pre-warning analysis of Anhui province in recent 11 years （2000-2010）. The results showed that the grain security situation could be divided into three states： heavy warning （2000-2004）, moderate warning （2000-2004） and security state （2007-2010）. The change of grain security degree of pre-warning was consistent with the fluctuation of single pre-warning index, and comprehensive security degree gradually increased. The model proposed improves the capacity of grain security pre-warning, quantitative evaluating grain security state and gives a new way for implementing grain security supervision.