泥石流灾害风险评估理论与方法研究

A Study on Theory and Method in Debris Flow Risk Assessment

近年来,频繁发生的泥石流灾害给中国部分地区造成了巨大的破坏。泥石流点多面广、成灾迅速,难以对其进行准确的监测预报,风险评估就显得尤为重要。本文从泥石流灾害风险的构成要素、危险性评估研究和承灾体脆弱程度评估研究等方面分析了泥石流灾害风险的研究现状。从当前的研究现状中可以发现:灾害风险公式得到广大学者普遍认同,泥石流危险性评估方法也相对比较成熟;但在泥石流灾害对承灾体的致损风险机理分析方面研究尚需深入,危险性评估中如何实现从点评价向面评价过渡还需进一步探讨,对承灾体脆弱性研究也需要引起重视。因此,在今后的评估研究中,需要加强这些方面的研究探索,进一步提高泥石流灾害风险评估结果的可信度,提高其实用性。

The frequent occurrences of debris flow disasters have caused great damage in some regions of Chinaduring recent years. Yet it is difficult to forecast such disasters accurately due to its big quantity in large area andsudden outbreak. Therefore it is especially urgent to pre-evaluate debris flow disaster risk. This paper reviewedthe research on debris risk assessment in the past decades, including its conceptual constituents, hazard assess-ment and vulnerability evaluation. It was found that a tangible disaster risk assessment formula had been formedand debris flow hazard assessment methods had been successfully established. However, there were still someproblems which need to be further explored, such as the mechanism analysis of the damage risk to hazard-bear-ing items, the effective transition from the point evaluation to the regional one, the neglected vulnerability re-search. Hence, it might be necessary to strengthen research in these aspects in the future, which might conse-quently enhance the reliability of the risk assessment results and improve its practicality.