金融—实体经济非均衡与中国的通货膨胀

Finance-real Economy Unbalance and Inflation in China

通过理论与实证分析,考察了金融—实体经济非均衡与中国的通货膨胀之间的关系。研究表明金融与实体经济的失衡程度对2006～2010年的通货膨胀具有稳定的解释力,货币在金融与实体经济之间具有明显的积聚—回吐效应。脉冲响应函数表明货币在金融与实体经济间的流动出现阻滞,表现为货币倾向于积聚在金融市场,这种阻滞在9个月后消失。治理通货膨胀,不仅要最大限度地控制货币供给总量,更要大力疏通货币传导阻滞,实现金融与实体经济均衡发展。

Through theoretic and experiential analysis,the relationship between finance-real economy unbalance and inflation in China has been investigated.The conclusions are that finance-real economy unbalance can explain the inflation since 2006 and money can accumulate to finance market and then return to real economy.IRF(Impulse Response Function) indicates that it is money unsmooth between finance and real economy which disappeared after 9 months.To fight inflation,the total quantity of money should be controlled and the money unsmooth between finance and real economy should be treaded.