我国经济周期波动对通货膨胀的动态影响——基于合成指数的实证研究

The Dynamic Effect of China Business Cycles on Inflation:Positive Research Based on Composite Index

本文基于动态因子模型计算了反映我国经济周期波动的景气缺口,并测算了景气缺口与通货膨胀率的滚动相关系数和景气缺口对通货膨胀的时变拉动效应。计算结果表明,我国通货膨胀具有顺周期特征,但顺周期性近期有所下降,景气缺口对通货膨胀的拉动效应减小。本文认为,在当前我国较高的通货膨胀水平下,维持当前紧缩的宏观经济政策仍然是合意的选择,但由于牺牲率较大,政策力度不宜继续加大以避免伤害经济增长。

This paper calculates the climate gap which reflects business cycles based on dynamic factor model and calculates the rolling correlation coefficients and time - varying pushing effect of the climate gap on inflation in China. The results show that inflation is pro - cyclical but the effect of the climate gap on inflation declines recently. This paper argues that it is still a wise choice to keep policies tight but, as the sacrifice ratio increa- ses, the government shouldn＇t strengthen the tight policies or the economic growth will be hurt.