人民币汇率、国内总需求与通货膨胀——基于汇率传递理论的实证研究

RMB EXCHANGE RATE,DOMESTIC AGGREGATE DEMAND AND INFLATION——Based on the Exchange Rate Transmission Theory

通货膨胀一直是中国政府直接面对而又必须谨慎处理的经济问题。本文以汇率传递理论为视角,运用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)考察了1980—2010年人民币汇率、国内总需求、世界商品价格与通货膨胀之间的长期均衡和短期调整关系。长期看来,人民币升值并未像国际经济学理论描述的那样可以抑制通货膨胀,相反却显著地抬高了国内价格水平;中国通货膨胀的成因具有需求拉上的特点,且不存在明显的世界通货膨胀的输入途径。短期看来,中国通货膨胀的动态调整具有明显的滞后特征,且由短期变动向长期均衡调整的速度较快。

Inflation has been economic problem which Chinese government must face directly and deal with cautiously.Based on the exchange rate transmission theory,this paper analyzed the long-term equilibrium and short-term adjustment relationships among RMB exchange rate,domestic aggregate demand,world price and domestic inflation from 1980 to 2010 by using the autoregressive distributed lag model（ARDL）.The appreciation of RMB did not curb the domestic inflation in long run as international economics theory described.On the contrary,it significantly raised the domestic price level.China＇s inflation had the characteristic of demand pull,which was insignificantly affected by world inflation.In short term,the dynamic adjustment of domestic inflation had a lag characteristic and the faster speed of adjustment from short-term changes to long-term equilibrium.