全社会用电量预警指标研究

Research on early warring index system of social electricity consumption

分析了开展全社会用电预警的意义,提出了选取先行指标的原则和筛选范围,针对国家电网公司经营区域全社会用电量,采用时差相关分析、转折点分析、异常点分析3种方法进行了实证分析,得到了全社会用电量的先行指标,并且提出了预警指标的构造方法,为建立用电量预警模型奠定了基础。

First, the meaning of consumption early warring of social electricity is analyzed in this paper. And then the choosing principle and range of leading index is proposed. By method of time difference correlative analysis, turning point analysis and ex ceptional point analysis, the leading index of social electricity con sumption is selected. Finally, this paper gives the way to construct the early warring index, which builds the foundation of modeling early warring of social electricity consumption.