基于应计收益、经营性现金流量对未来收益的预测

Accrued Income,Operating Cash Flow and Forecast to Future Income

本文选取了2006-2009年我国A股制造业中的1 301家企业为研究样本,以历史会计盈余及各组成部分为研究的出发点,分别建立各单变量模型和多变量模型对企业未来收益的预测进行检验。研究结果发现,历史盈余对未来收益的预测效果最好,其次是经营性现金流量对未来收益的预测,应计收益对企业未来收益的预测能力最弱,且会计盈余划分越细,预测效果越佳。

This paper selected for the period 2006-2009 in the manufacturing sector of China＇s A-share companies for the study of 1 301 samples to accounting earnings and the historical part of the starting point for the study were to establish the univariate model and multivariate model for the company＇s future earnings forecast inspection. The results showed that the history of the surplus for the best forecast of future earnings, followed by operating cash flow forecasts of future earnings, accrued income of the company＇s future earnings ability to predict the weakest, and the finer the division of accounting earnings, the more predictive good.