农产品涨价与通货膨胀

Price Rise of Agricultural Products and Inflation

依据传统的观点,农产品价格上涨会导致通货膨胀。然而,这是缺乏科学理论基础的。要验证农产品价格上涨与通货膨胀的真实关系,需要把农业生产、技术进步和货币投入统一在一个初始陈述中。为此,从G函数出发,以货币投入为基本约束条件,构造了一个两部门分析的模型,其中涉及到技术、价格和其它固定数量。依据经济运行过程中的状态,定义了有关价格增长与通货膨胀的概念,推导出了有关的结构性解释。结果表明,包括农产品价格在内的价格增长只会导致货币缩减率的增长率的增长,而不能直接影响通货膨胀,通货膨胀可以归入纯粹的经济外侵入。经济自身的增长,处于极端状态的因子的增长,会带动货币缩减率的增长率的增长,从而加重已有的通货膨胀。农产品涨价是否总具有这种极端状态,需要经过试验和实验来证明。遏制通货膨胀,有助于技术进步,促进固定投入增长,保持或加速整体经济的增长。

By a traditional theory in economics, price rise of agricultural products gives rise to inflation. However, the theory is not a scientific one. To verify the real connection between price rise of agricultural products and inflation, it needs to unify the agricultural production, the technological progress and the currency input into a primary statement. For the purpose, starting with the restricted profit function, named G function below, and with the currency input as a basic restraint, a two-sector analytical model is built in this paper, in which technology, price and other fixed quantity are involved. Based on the operation status of economy, concepts related to price rise and inflation are defined and relevant structural interpretations are deduced. The model shows that rising in prices, including that of agricultural products, only brings about rising in the growth rate growth of the subtraction rate of currency, but does not cause the inflation itself. Inflation can be regarded as a simple intrusion outside the economy. The growth of economic itself results from the growth of the agents in their extreme status, which can bring about the growth rate growth of the subtraction rate of currency, thus aggravating the current inflation. Therefore, it needs to be testified and verified whether there is always the extreme status with the price rise of agricultural products. Inflation has to be restrained, thus helpful for technological progress, promoting fixed input growth, and maintaining or accelerating the growth of economy as a whole.