我国财政货币政策对经济增长的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

An Empirical Study on Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Economic Growth:Based on Unrestricted VAR Model

选用实际GDP增长率、零售物价指数增长率、财政赤字占GDP比重和广义货币供应量(M2)的增长率为变量构建VAR模型,通过格兰杰因果关系检验和脉冲响应函数对我国财政货币政策对经济增长的影响进行实证分析.分析发现:扩张性的财政政策短期内可刺激经济增长,但长期内是抑制的;扩张性的货币政策短期内对经济增长的影响微弱,但长期内可以看作是中性的.同时还发现财政货币政策存在一种非对称性的关系,即扩张的货币政策对财政政策的影响不大,而扩张的财政政策将导致被动扩张的货币政策.

In this paper,is established a VAR model including growth rate,the proportion of fiscal deficit divided by GDP, M2 gr the four variables： the real GDP owth rate,and retail price index growth rate,and the influence of monetary and fiscal policies on China＇s economic growth is analyzed. It also takes a Granger Causality Test,Impulse Responses Functions and Variance Decomposition Analysis, and finds out that expansionary fiscal policy can urge economic growth in the short term, while is compressive in the long run, and expansionary monetary policy exerts little influence on economic growth in the short term, but is neutral in the long run. In addition,some other con- clusions are reached that the independence of the central bank should be strengthened in order to increase the efficiency of the policies,and at the present stage, the amount of fiscal deficit should be decreased or kept down,so as to reduce the negative effect on the economic growth.