气候变化情景下黄河天然径流预测研究

Study on Natural Runoff Forecasting of the Yellow River Under Future Climate Change Scenarios

1961—2000年黄河天然径流量呈减小趋势,且径流变化与降水量变化过程基本一致。选用IPCC提出的A2、B2两种温室气体排放方案,并采用北京大学在黄河流域未来气候情景研究中的降尺度成果,以黄河流域未来气候情景模式和预测成果为基础,建立黄河水量平衡模型,预测黄河主要断面的未来天然径流量并分析其时空变化。结果表明:黄河径流量2050年将减少29.3亿～61.1亿m3,2100年将减少42.2亿～71.2亿m3;从空间分布来看,上游兰州以上主要产水区的降水量、径流量有较大幅度减小,其他区域产流量有所增加;从径流年内分配来看,冬季、春季略有增加或基本不变,夏季、秋季减少明显。

The natural runoff and precipitation of the Yellow River basin （YRB） were decreasing gradually in the period of 1961 -2000. The Yellow River Water Balance Model （YRWBM） was built to forecast the future natural runoff and its space-time change, with the model inputs were the future climatic scenarios of YRB, which had been formed by A2 and B2 climate change scenarios defined by the IPCC and their downscaling an-alytic results by PKU. The results show that the runoff of the Yellow River is projected to reduce by 2.93 - 6.11 billion cubic meters in 2050, and reduce by 4.22 -7.12 billion cubic meters in 2100. In spatial distribution, the precipitation and runoff are greatly reduced in main water yielding regions upper Lanzhou, and increased in other regions; In annual distribution, they are greatly reduced in summer and autumn, and little change in spring and winter.