美国量化宽松货币政策前景及其对我国跨境资金流动的影响

US QE monetary policy prospects and its implications on China＇s cross-border capital flows

2012年1月25日，美联储举行2012年首次议息会议，会议声明显示出较为鲜明的量化宽松立场，这引起了市场各界对美国是否会在近期推出第三轮量化宽松货币政策（QE3）的热议。文章综合美国经济基本面、通胀形势与欧债危机演变等多方面因素分析，预计近期美联储不会推出QE3，但2012年下半年QE3推出的可能性较大，这将促使资金加速流向新兴资本市场，并对我国跨境资本流动和外汇供求关系产生影响。

On January 25, 2012, the Federal Reserve held the first FOMC meeting for 2012. The meeting stated a clear quantitative easing （QE） stand, which has aroused a heated debate on the market over whether the US would introduce the 3rd round of QE policy （QE3） shortly. The article conducts a comprehensive analysis covering US economic fundamentals and inflation trend and the evolution of the European debt crisis, and predicts that QE3 will not be introduced shortly, but with a higher chance in the second half of 2012. If so, it will speed up fund flows to emerging capital markets, and have impacts on China＇s cross-border capital flow and foreign exchange demand-supply balance.