汇率传递与出口商品策略定价能力研究——基于面板随机系数模型的分析

Exchange Rate Pass Through and Strategic Pricing Capacity of Exporting Merchandise——Based on the Analysis of Panel Random Coefficient ModelBT

本文从出口企业定价的微观视角出发,选取广东省2005-2010年出口商品月度数据,通过采用面板随机系数模型对HS分类商品进行了细分行业的实证研究。研究表明:广东省分行业出口商品在面对人民币升值时,汇率传递有较大差异;具有比较优势的劳动密集型行业存在汇率过度传递现象,出口商具有超强的策略定价能力,在国际市场中,面对人民币升值时,有提高出口价格的能力;对于不具有比较优势的技术含量较高的行业,则存在逆传递的现象,出口商在面对人民币升值时,通过降低出口价格来维持其在国际市场上的竞争力和市场份额;大多数行业介于这两者之中,人民币汇率的出口价格传递呈现不完全传递的状态。

From the micro point of view of the export enterprise pricing, based on the export data between 2005 and 2010 of Guangdong Province, this paper analyzes different industries of HS classification commodities by using the panel random coeffi cient model. The research shows that in face of the appreciation of the RMB, the exchange rate passthrough of Guangdong Province＇s export commodities of different industries have significant differences;excessive exchange fate passthrough exists in comparatively advantaged laborintensive industries, and those exporters have superior strategic pricing ability, therefore they are able to raise the export prices in the international markets to face the appreciation of the RMB ; exchange rate pass-through exists in high technology industries which do not have comparative advantages, and those exporters reduce the export prices to maintain competitiveness and market shares in international markets;the majority of industries are in between the two, where incomplete exchange rate pass-through exists.