发输电互联等值系统风险评估的解析模型

An Analytical Model for Risk Evaluation of Equivalent Interconnected Composite System

为快速而精确得出发输电组合系统中区域元件参数变化后的系统风险指标,在发输电互联系统改进等值模型的基础上,推导出系统风险指标对区域元件参数变化的解析表达式,并提出系统风险评估的算法和流程。利用该解析表达式所得出的图表不但可直观反映元件各参数变化对系统风险指标的影响,还可为电力系统规划和效益评估提供指导意见。论文还以互联RBTS系统和IEEE-RTS96系统为例,通过故障重数对系统风险指标影响的定量化研究,解释和证明了高阶故障对大电力系统风险评估的重要性。

For the quick and accurate calculation of bulk power system risk indices after component reliability parameters have been changed, this paper presented the analytical expressions of several risk indices with respect to components reliability parameters, on the basis of improved equivalent reliability model for interconnected bulk power systems. The algorithms and the implementation flowcharts for the risk evaluation process were also proposed. Utilizing these analytical formulas, the curves and tables were obtained through which one can not only find the different kinds of effect of component parameters on system risk indices, but also provide guide information for power system planning and benefit evaluation. In addition, the article also explained and demonstrated the importance of high level contingency to the interconnected bulk power system reliability by quantitative analysis taking the interconnected RBTS and IEEE-RTS96 test systems as examples.