长江流域洪水相关因素及对策

Related Factors and Countermeasures of Flood in the Yangtze River Basin

长江流域资源丰富、人口密集。20世纪长江流域的3次大洪涝造成了巨大损失,所以研究流域洪水相关因子,探寻洪涝规律意义重大。天文地理、大气环流、厄尔尼诺以及拉尼娜等因素是造成长江流域大洪水的主要因素,人为因素加重了洪涝灾害。全球变暖的大环境,将会加快大气水循环,增加降水量。同时指出,长江流域洪水治理值得反思,用于防洪的堤坝存在潜在危险。长江流域防洪压力最大的荆江段,在高堤防高水位形势下,加上大堤管涌、岸崩、可能的地震等致灾因素的共同作用下,可能会北向溃堤,造成巨大灾难。最后提出了一些建议,希望能为长江流域防洪减灾尽到微薄之力。

It＇s important to study the flood-related factors and to investigate the regularity of floods in the resource-abundant and populated Yangtze River basin which suffered huge losses from three big floods in the 20th century.Astro-geography,atmospheric circulation,EL-NINO and LA-NINA are main factors of floods in the basin;while human factors aggravate the floods as global warming is speeding up atmospheric hydrological cycle and increasing precipitation.The approach of flood control in the Yangtze River basin should be reflected.Embankments and dams against the floods are potentially perilous.Particularly,in Jingjiang River segment which is subject to severe seasonal floods,embankment might collapse towards the north plain due to high levee with high flood stage,embankment piping,bank collapse,or possible earthquake.Suggestions including utilizing flood resources,protecting soil and water ecology,applying remote sensing and GIS technology,and developing labor intensified industry are put forward.