浙江省港口物流与国际贸易关系分析

Study on Relationship between Port Logistics and International Trade in Zhejiang Province

运用VAR模型,Granger(格兰杰)因果检验及脉冲响应函数等方法,依据1986年～2009年浙江省进出口总额以及主要港口货物吞吐量的数据,分析该省港口物流与国际贸易之间的关系,结果表明,浙江省国际贸易与港口物流存在着长期均衡稳定发展,国际贸易发展对港口物流发展的正向冲击大,两者存在单向因果关系。

Based on the data of total import-export volume and the main ports cargo throughput of Zhejiang Province from 1986 to 2009, this paper uses VAR models, Granger causality test and impulse response function to analyze the relationship between port logistics and international trade .Study shows that there is balanced and stable long-term development of international trade and port logistics of Zhejiang Province, and that international trade development has significant positive impact on the port logistics development while the port logistics＇ impact on international trade is insignificant therefore it is a one-way causation relationship between the two of them.