汇率升值对产出的作用机制与效果文献述评

The Mechanism and Effect of Exchange Rate Appreciation on Output:a Literature Introduction and Review

汇率升值会从多个渠道影响一国的产出水平,并通过不同渠道不同方向产出不同作用,但从理论和实证角度都难以直接确定其产出的最终作用方向。从实证角度分析,汇率升值对产出的作用方向也并无定论,研究对象的不同,研究时间区间的差异是造成研究结论分化的重要原因,但在研究中没有很好地解决内生性问题也是造成结果出现偏差,进而容易得出"紧缩性贬值"结论的一个重要原因。

The appreciation of exchange rate will affect the output of a country from multiple channels. The final result of output effect of exchange rate appreciation depends on the resultant of forces. From the empirical perspective, the effects of the exchange rate appreciation on output in different countries are not the same. The different countries of study and time span difference causes different results, while that the research does not solve endogeneity problem also contributes to the biased results which lead to the ＂contractionary devaluation＂ conclusion.