人民币汇率变动对中国出口商品结构的影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Movement on China's Export Commodity Structure

通过1985年～2010年资源密集型产品出口额(SITC0-4)、劳动密集型产品出口额(SITC6、SITC8)和资本技术密集型产品出口额(SITC5、SITC7)与人民币实际有效汇率指数及非市场因素出口退税额的协整分析,认为出口额的汇率弹性由大到小依次为劳动密集型产品、资本技术密集型产品、资源密集型产品,因而人民币实际有效汇率升值有利于优化我国出口商品结构,至少是工业制成品出口结构。同时,从出口退税额前的相关系数来看,中国应转变出口退税的政策倾向,加大对资本技术密集型产品出口的支持力度。

This paper makes cointegration analysis of relationship between RMB real effective exchange rate, export tax rebate and export amounts of resource-intensive, labor-intensive and capital-and technology-intensive products respectively. Then it comes to conclusion that exchange rate elasticity of export amounts decline ~om labor-intensive products, capital-and technology-intensive products, resource-intensive products successively. Therefore,the appreciation of RMI3 is beneficial to China＇s export commodity structure optimization,.at least to the structure optimization of manufactured products. Meanwhile, by observing the coefl]ciency of the export tax rebate, we can get another conclusion that China should adjust its export tax rebate policy to strengthen its support for exporting capital-and technology-intensive products.